Weekly Gold Price Prediction: Jul 7th to Jul 13th, 2025

Gold Trends

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The gold price has corrected below $3320 (~₹96,500), struggling to find its footing as the U.S. labour market remains robust, with the economy creating more jobs than expected last month. 

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Last week, gold began on a stable foundation, registering gains for three consecutive days, but it lost its momentum when it became evident that the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates soon. 

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In the absence of high-tier macroeconomic data releases, headlines surrounding the US tariff negotiations could drive gold’s action in the short term. 

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White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that United States  President Donald Trump sent a handwritten note to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, urging him to lower interest rates. She added that Trump believes interest rates should be lowered to about 1%.

Nevertheless, hawkish remarks from Fed Chairman Powell at the European  Central Bank’s Forum on Central Banking helped the USD shake off the selling pressure and limited gold’s upside. 

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Powell reiterated that, while the US economy remains solid, they are going to remain patient regarding policy easing and noted that they expect higher inflation readings over the summer. 

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With this Wednesday's deadline for the 90-day pause on so-called reciprocal tariffs looming, President Trump said Sunday that a dozen or more letters could go out this week. 

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The Donald Trump Effect

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Meanwhile, Trump signed his "one big, beautiful bill" into law in a July 4th ceremony. A key factor supporting gold is the damaging U.S. policy, which is eroding investors' confidence in safe U.S. assets.

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Many key US trade partners are scrambling to finalise agreements or secure more time, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggesting that talks could be extended, giving countries without a deal by July 9 an extra three weeks to negotiate. 

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Still, gold’s decline was limited as President Donald Trump reiterated warnings that higher tariffs would target nations that fail to reach agreements by the deadline and confirmed that sweeping reciprocal tariffs will take effect on August 1. 

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Meanwhile, investors also awaited updates on US fiscal policy, and strong labour data last week tempered expectations for a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve. 

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Bottom Line

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On the other hand, Hamas is reportedly moving closer to accepting a proposed deal for a ceasefire in Gaza. 

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Earlier in the week, US President Trump claimed that Israel is ready to agree to a 60-day ceasefire and use that time to work on a final agreement to end the war. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to meet with Trump on July 6 to discuss the war. 

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If markets start the week with news of the Israel-Hamas conflict ending, even if temporarily, gold could turn south with the immediate reaction.

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Disclaimer: This report contains opinions, which are not to be construed as investment advice. We cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information presented herein or for the results of the positions taken based on the opinions expressed above. 

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The opinions mentioned above are based on information that is believed to be accurate, and no assurance can be given for the accuracy of the information. Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided in this report is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. 

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The information contained in this report is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. We do not offer any sort of portfolio advisory, portfolio management, or investment advisory services. The reports are only for information purposes and are not to be construed as investment advice.